Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis caused by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Rhythm of Diplomacy and Destruction
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, political struggles are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is allocated on containing certain initiatives. By night, Russian leadership brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor rocket firings from enemy soil, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, military aircraft that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats flew past – modern combat jets delivered to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: multiple launches deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, most likely delivered by partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The moment of terror quickly gives way to resigned acknowledgment: possibly the approaching threat won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the projectiles didn't strike the hostile drone – it pressed on overhead toward its destination.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period demonstrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a reliance that neighboring countries are clearly incapable to fill in the immediate future.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The comprehensive proposal from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington functions according to a principle familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House believes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's south or east.
The challenge is that while acknowledging this situation, US leadership does minimal to discourage Russia, through words or deeds, from believing that the status quo will not shift further in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, the Kremlin is confident that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the maximum possible gain is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to stop fighting, but they will continue as long as Russia's leadership remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing lives and land but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its benefit.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no genuine requirements for a truce. Now, subjective factors are entering the equation: personal goals to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their priority does not switch to internal issues. And although their objective will now be considerably more difficult after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are guiding negotiations.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with pacifying measures of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new proposals based on previous concepts are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate certain reluctance to modify developments, if they stand together and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on continued Western support.
